President Donald Trump's assertions regarding his electoral mandate have been subject to scrutiny. Despite securing a popular vote margin of 1.5 percentage points in the recent November election, his characterization of this outcome as a "massive mandate" appears overstated. While this figure represents an improvement upon his previous popular vote deficits of 2.1 points in 2016 and 4.5 points in 2020 (his 2016 victory was achieved through the Electoral College), it remains the narrowest popular vote victory since the year 2000.
In alignment with patterns observed among various global leaders, President Trump interprets his re-election as a validation of the MAGA movement and a directive for swift and significant policy implementation. However, within the initial quarter of his term, indications of a decline in his public approval have emerged. His approval rating has experienced a 14-point decrease since assuming office, representing a more pronounced contraction than the five-point reduction recorded at a comparable juncture in his first term. Data from YouGov/The Economist surveys indicate a net negative rating of seven percentage points regarding President Trump's handling of the economy, contrasting with positive ratings at this stage of his prior term. Notably, nearly one-fifth of those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2024 express disapproval concerning his management of inflation and prices, with 12% voicing similar concerns regarding his stewardship of jobs and the broader economy. Furthermore, early April data from the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey reveal diminished optimism among Republicans regarding the economy, reaching levels not seen during President Trump's first term, with the exception of December 2020 following his electoral defeat.
The observed erosion in President Trump's approval metrics is explicable. His electoral success was largely predicated on domestic economic concerns, and he inherited an economy characterized by underlying inflationary pressures. The capacity of presidential administrations to effect immediate macroeconomic improvements is typically limited. Nevertheless, since his inauguration, President Trump has seemingly prioritized measures with the potential for rapid and substantial disruption. The administration's initial reduction in the federal workforce and curtailment of aid programs benefiting agricultural sectors have directly impacted segments of his voter base.
Subsequently, a period of significant tariff adjustments ensued. Within a two-week timeframe, President Trump introduced a comprehensive array of tariffs targeting a substantial portion of America's trading partners, subsequently retracting levies exceeding 10% (with the exception of those imposed on China), while granting an exemption for electronics manufactured in China. The administration's approach appears to involve ongoing negotiation and ad hoc adjustments. On April 8th, the S&P 500 experienced a 19% decline from its February peak before demonstrating a recovery. Consequently, the waning confidence among some of President Trump's supporters is hardly unexpected.
The question remains whether these declining poll numbers will temper his policy inclinations. As a self-proclaimed "Tariff Man," President Trump has operated based on conviction, acknowledging the potential for "some pain" for American consumers in the short term, with a stated objective of revitalizing manufacturing jobs in the long term. This conviction may render him less susceptible to fluctuations in his approval ratings. While constitutional limitations preclude President Trump from seeking a third term, his Republican congressional counterparts face an impending electoral reckoning. Having constructed their winning coalition through the support of economically disaffected swing voters, Republican candidates at both congressional and state levels will be particularly vulnerable should President Trump's tariffs exacerbate inflation or precipitate an economic recession.
President Trump's core support base remains largely favorable. Over 92% of Republican partisans who voted for him in November continue to hold a positive view. However, his re-election was contingent upon swing voters and less frequent voters, many of whom expressed dissatisfaction with the economic conditions under the preceding Biden administration. These economically focused voters exhibit greater diversity than the traditional Republican base, with President Trump achieving notable gains among younger and Hispanic voters, demographic groups not traditionally aligned with conservative ideologies. Data from the Cooperative Election Study indicate that 84% of voters who supported President Trump in both 2020 and 2024 were white, 74% identified as conservative, and 72% were over the age of 45. Conversely, the new voters he attracted in 2024 presented a different profile: 65% were white, only 42% identified as conservative, and merely 41% were over the age of 45. Should President Trump fail to deliver the promised economic expansion, the allegiance of these voters could readily shift.
Early indicators of such a shift are already apparent. The Economist's analysis of YouGov data illustrates these evolving trends. Among Hispanic respondents, President Trump's net approval stands at minus-37 percentage points, while among those under 30 years of age, it is minus-25. Extrapolating these trends suggests a potential reversal in the very regions that secured President Trump's victory (see chart). Our data indicate a net negative approval rating for President Trump in all six swing states he flipped from Joe Biden in the November presidential election: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
President Trump and his allies may be inclined to dismiss such indicators as unreliable polling data. However, Republicans have witnessed concerning shifts in voter sentiment in recent electoral contests, including special congressional elections and a closely contested state supreme court election in Wisconsin. Gubernatorial and other statewide elections in Virginia and New Jersey in November will provide further insight, with The Economist's analysis suggesting a decline in President Trump's net approval to an estimated minus-11 and minus-14, respectively, in these states.
The midterm elections of 2026 will represent a critical juncture, determining control of Congress and, consequently, the trajectory of President Trump's legislative agenda. During his first term, the Republican party experienced a net loss of 42 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections, resulting in Democratic control of the chamber. At that time, President Trump's approval rating was approximately minus-eight, marginally higher than current levels, while voter satisfaction with the economy was generally positive. With approximately one and a half years remaining until the next midterm elections, forecasting potential headwinds for Republicans is premature. However, incumbent parties typically fare poorly in midterm elections, and the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is exceptionally narrow. Paradoxically, voter discontent with President Trump's economic management may constitute an encouraging sign for American democracy. While partisan divisions may be pronounced, a segment of the electorate remains willing to transcend party affiliations to hold politicians accountable for perceived hubris or misjudgment.